Is opening a restaurant worth it today? The numbers to check before signing the lease
Opening makes sense when three numbers add up before the lease is signed: a realistic break-even point, cash for the first months, and payback within the lease term. In 2025, according to FIPE (Italy's restaurant trade association), there were 25,239 closures against 10,062 new businesses.
In brief
- Break-even in the example: €1,573 and 58 covers a day, with an average check of €30 including VAT (IVA).
- With revenue down 15%, the margin drops by 80%.
- An existing restaurant offers real numbers, as long as they are documented.
Industry numbers (2025)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Food service businesses | 324,436 (−1%) |
| New registrations / closures | 10,062 / 25,239 |
| Consumption | €100 billion; −5.4% vs. 2019 at constant prices |
| Chain openings expected in 2026 | 1,718 |
Sources: FIPE, Rapporto Ristorazione 2026 (in Italian); Teleborsa-ANSA (in Italian); Confimprese (in Italian).
The 3 checks
| Check | Calculation example |
|---|---|
| 1. Realistic break-even point | €1,573 and 58 covers a day |
| 2. Cash for the first months | €21,600 if revenue is 70% of forecast for 6 months |
| 3. Payback within the lease | less than 3 years as forecast, almost 14 with revenue down 15% |
If revenue falls
| Annual revenue | Operating margin |
|---|---|
| €600,000 (forecast) | €72,000 |
| €510,000 (−15%) | €14,400 |
| €450,000 (−25%) | −€24,000 |
ACRA example calculation: fixed costs €312,000, variable costs at 36%.
Existing restaurant or a new start?
An existing restaurant has real numbers. Goodwill should be paid only after checking the financial statements, the monthly sales of the last two years and the lease.
Frequently asked questions
Is opening a restaurant worth it today?
Yes, if break-even, cash for the first months and payback time hold up even with revenue below forecast.
How many food service businesses close each year?
In 2025, according to FIPE, there were 25,239 closures against 10,062 new registrations. Active businesses: 324,436.
How long does it take to recover the investment?
Investment ÷ annual margin. In the example, with €200,000 invested: less than 3 years, almost 14 with revenue down 15%.
Sources
- Businesses, consumption, prices and salaried employment in food service, 2025: FIPE-Confcommercio, Rapporto Ristorazione 2026, summary of April 9, 2026 (in Italian).
- Registrations and closures of food service businesses in 2025, FIPE data: Teleborsa-ANSA, September 22, 2026 (in Italian).
- Chain openings in food service in 2026: Confimprese, press release of April 2026 (in Italian).
- The calculation examples are AC Retail Advisory estimates on hypothetical values, consistent with the example income statement (P&L) in the food cost guide.
Updated October 9, 2026.
Author
Andrea Calistri, founder of AC Retail Advisory. I have 20 years of experience in food retail and the food industry and have opened more than 200 locations. I have run operations for restaurant networks, served as CEO in Italy, France and the Netherlands, and advised restaurant chains and food companies as a consultant.
Restaurant business plan
Custom-built, with a 5-year financial plan.
For a complete read of the restaurant's numbers: restaurant check-up.
